By: Aretina Stefani, Dr Suzanne Maas (Friends of the Earth Malta)
The ambiguous outcomes of COP29 are often characterised as ‘key’, but it’s uncertain whether the doors they unlock lead to the right destination—limiting global warming to 1.5°C and climate justice. Here, we present a bird’s eye view of the main outcomes from COP29, this year’s global climate summit held in Azerbaijan, and what lies ahead.
New Collective Quantified Goal – an unfair outcome through an unfair process
COP29’s title ‘the finance COP’ falls under scrutiny as it failed to deliver on its core mandate: adopting a new Climate Finance goal that reflects developed countries’ historic responsibility for climate harms. The final New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) fell far short of expectations.
In the closing hours of COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, affluent nations pledged a seemingly substantial $300 billion annually to aid countries in mitigating climate disasters and addressing energy transition imbalances. However, this commitment pales in comparison to the trillions allocated to activities such as fossil fuel subsidies, wars, and genocide. The intense negotiations included a walkout by climate-vulnerable nations, who deemed it “insulting,” “disappointing,” and “hostile,” citing its failure to provide them with the necessary resources to tackle the intricacies of the climate crisis.
With developing nations initially aiming for $1.3 trillion – a mere fraction of their actual needs– the conceded $300 billion by 2035 makes for an inadequate and uncertain allocation. 2035 is a long time from now and counting for inflation, this number is not much higher than the previous (also way too low) $100 billion goal, set in 2009, while mitigation, adaptation and loss and damage needs have grown exponentially. The decision-making process itself wasn’t much fairer, with the COP President pushing through a decision despite objections from climate-vulnerable countries, exposing the power imbalances in global climate talks.
While the new NCQG was applauded by many, it not only falls short on achieving its purpose, but also highlights how deeply inequities are entrenched in the global response to a crisis predominantly created by the developed world. While the “Baku to Belém Roadmap” (next year’s COP30 will be held in Belém, Brazil) aims to scale up climate finance to the much awaited $1.3 trillion, questions remain about how these funds will flow and whether they will avoid worsening debt crises and Global North’s philanthropy mentality, inherent to most of the climate finance mechanisms presented so far. A transparent and inclusive process is essential to ensure climate finance is both fair and effective.
No considerable progress on mitigation and fossil fuel phase out
Methane, a relatively short-lived but very potent greenhouse gas – the world’s second-largest contributor to global warming after CO2 – has seen emissions spike at record rates over the past five years, making rapid reduction efforts more urgent than ever. At COP29, 35 countries endorsed the Declaration on Reducing Methane from Organic Waste, aiming to include methane reduction targets in future Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), namely the signatories’ national responsibilities in accordance with the Paris Agreement. While this marked a step forward, the lack of sufficient funding commitments in COP29 threatens its impact.
Last year’s key discussions on implementing the Global Stocktake outcomes and the UAE Just Transition Work Programme were delayed until next June, stalling progress on phasing out fossil fuels and transitioning to sustainable energy systems — vital for achieving net-zero by 2050. Meanwhile, the fossil fuel industry’s grip remains firm, with over 1,700 lobbyists present at COP29 and coal, oil, and gas production set to reach record highs in 2024. The polluters’ refusal to pay up for climate action and harm, or to phase out fossil fuels, in line with their legal obligations, deprives climate vulnerable countries of their due compensation and ability to adapt and puts a livable future at risk.
Carbon markets-Financing False Solutions
After nearly a decade of stalled negotiations, COP29 reached a significant agreement on the rules for international carbon trading under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement. This deal establishes the framework for carbon markets, allowing countries to trade credits and collaborate on emission reductions. However, this development seems like yet another case of treating the symptoms without addressing the root cause.
Carbon offsetting often serves as a loophole, enabling greenwashing and delaying real emission cuts by creating a false sense of ‘climate neutrality’ even as emissions rise. According to Friends of the Earth International’s research, carbon markets fail to deliver and instead harm communities and ecosystems. Paying to pollute is not a climate solution, and carbon markets, at least in their current form lacking transparency, accountability and meaningful oversight, cannot be climate finance. The urgent need for deep, genuine emission reductions has never been clearer, but COP29’s half-measures fell far short of meeting this critical challenge.
Human rights on mute
Having extensively covered the human rights regression in COP29 in a previous blogpost, it’s enough to say that the summit lived up to its reputation. A vital paragraph of the NCQG text on ensuring climate finance respects human rights and is gender-responsive was removed in the second week, leaving funds at risk of harming vulnerable communities and ecosystems, especially given the reliance on private finance and Multilateral Development Banks with poor track records.
Focusing more on gender, while the weak extension of the Lima Work Programme on Gender and the announcement of a new gender action plan for COP30 are steps towards the right direction, they lack intersectionality, human rights protection safety nets, and safeguards for women environmental defenders. Despite these conditions and the strict restrictions imposed on activists at the COP29, civil society was able to make itself heard.
“COP29 has also been characterised by the strengthening of the articulation of movements from around the world to secure real climate action rooted in justice. We’re on the road now to COP30, developing a critical, transformative and emancipatory long term environmental agenda. Local groups in Brazil are already organising, peoples and communities are building and we’ll be there together, louder and stronger to demand climate justice.”, said Linda González from Friends of the Earth Colombia.
So what’s next? The focus now shifts to the International Court of Justice (ICJ) to clarify the legal obligations of states in the context of climate change and the consequences of breaching those obligations, including halting harm and making full reparations. The power is in the hands of the people to fight for, and co-create the environment they and future generations deserve. Finally, as attention moves away from Azerbaijan, we stand in solidarity with all those unjustly detained. #FreeThemAll
Sources:
https://www.climateaction.org/news/cop29-week-two-summary-and-final-outcome
https://www.ldc-climate.org/press_release/cop29-a-staggering-betrayal-of-the-worlds-most-vulnerable/
https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/cma2024_L22_adv.pdf
https://news.un.org/en/story/2024/11/1157416
https://www.wri.org/insights/cop29-outcomes-next-steps
https://climatenetwork.org/2024/11/23/cop29_betrayal_in_baku/
https://www.unep.org/news-and-stories/statements/launch-eye-methane-report-cop29
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/19112024/fossil-fuel-industry-cop29-influence/
https://www.foei.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Carbon-markets-guide_FoEI_ENG.pdf
https://unfccc.int/topics/gender/workstreams/the-gender-action-plan
https://unfccc.int/topics/gender/workstreams/the-enhanced-lima-work-programme-on-gender
https://www.foei.org/cop29-foei-closing-press-release/