“The United Nations has warned recently that El NiƱo is likely to return within months, bringing another wave of extreme weather across the world. According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), there is now an 80% chance that El NiƱo conditions will develop before September 2026, rising to 90% before the end of the year.”
Although many people are not even aware of what El NiƱo is and represents, or for others, it may sound like a distant climate phenomenon which happens somewhere in the Pacific Ocean, its impacts are global and particularly in a warming planet, they are becoming more and more dangerous.
El NiƱo occurs when surface waters in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean become unusually warm, disrupting weather systems around the world. It is part of the natural climate cycle known as the El NiƱo-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Typically, Pacific Ocean trade winds push warm water westward, but during El NiƱo years, those winds weaken and allow warm water to spread eastwards and alter rainfall and temperature patterns globally. The consequences are wide, significant and visible, starting with hotter global temperatures, prolonged droughts in some regions, heavier rainfall and flooding in others, stronger heatwaves, pressure on agriculture and water supplies, and increased wildfire risk.
Climate scientists warn that while El NiƱo is a natural climate pattern that existed for thousands of years as part of the Earthās climate system, climate change is amplifying its effects as a positive feedback loop, by raising global temperatures, warming the oceans, and making predictions more challenging. The last El NiƱo event in 2023-2024 contributed to record breaking global temperatures, deadly heatwaves, devastating floods, droughts, crop failures, and wildfires. However, scientists are warning that the next one will arrive on top of already overheated oceans and rising greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, intensifying climate disruption worldwide. The concern now is not simply that El NiƱo may return but the fact that it will return in a world increasingly heated by fossil fuel emissions.
According to the United Nations and climate researchers, the baseline global temperature is now around 1.3ĀŗC higher than pre-industrial levels, which means that every climate event now starts from a warmer point, making extremes more severe, frequent, and unpredictable. This may come in the form of more intense rainfall in some places, but more extreme droughts and heatwaves in others, greater stress on ecosystems, and rising food insecurity. The United Nations Secretary-General, AntĆ³nio Guterres, who has continuously emphasized and warned about the consequences of climate change, described this news as another reminder that the world is “running out of timeā to move away from fossil fuels.
Although El NiƱoās strongest impacts are felt in the Pacific region, the Mediterranean is not insulated from global climate shifts. Considered one of the worldās climate hotspots, the Mediterranean has been warming faster than the global average. Scientists have repeatedly warned that Southern Europe will face increasingly severe droughts, heatwaves, and ecological pressures in coming decades. A strong El NiƱo year can further push global temperatures upward and increase likelihood of extreme weather across Europe and particularly across the Mediterranean.
Malta is already experiencing rising summer temperatures, marine heatwaves, increasing water stress, biodiversity loss, urban overheating, higher energy demand during heatwaves, etc. Especially for a small island like Malta, these events can create significant damages and affect public health, food prices, water availability, fisheries, infrastructure and energy systems, which puts the Maltese population at risk, particularly the most vulnerable communities.
The United Nations has emphasized the importance of early warning systems and climate preparedness but adaptation alone is not enough. Extreme weather events are becoming more costly, disruptive, and dangerous because greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise globally. Without rapid emissions cuts, every future El NiƱo event risks becoming more destructive than the previous one.Ā
Although Malta cannot solve this climate crisis alone, it can choose whether to contribute to the problem or become part of the solution. Additionally, Malta should finally embrace and act according to its role as one of the first EU member states to ratify the Paris Agreement. This public commitment to international negotiations and global efforts of limiting climate change, should now arrive in the form of more adaptation and mitigation strategies, such as, accelerating renewable energy investment, promoting and supporting the creation of energy communities, reducing dependence on fossil fuels, protecting natural ecosystems, strengthening urban climate resilience, improving water management, prioritizing sustainable mobility, and finally ensuring that climate justice remains the focus of policymaking.
The return of El NiƱo is not simply news about the weather, but another warning sign from a planet under pressure. The question is whether governments will finally act with the urgency the science demands.